All Alone in the Night

Have you heard the latest from Baghdad? Probably not, since it hasn't been bad enough of late. Here we are, a couple weeks into the "surge," which at this point is a primarily Iraqi operation (we only have an additional brigade on the ground so far), and the current reports indicate that we are having an effect.

First, the number of attacks is down by nearly 50%. This is significant, although the nay sayers will complain that there are still attacks happening. Yes, we have not yet eliminated the insurgency, but we weren't really expecting to, especially not in just a couple weeks. However, it is clearly becoming much more difficult for insurgents to operate in the city - many of the attacks that have been reported so far have occurred at Iraqi Army or Police checkpoints, when vehicles or individuals have been stopped for inspections. Deprived of the soft, spectacular targets they hoped for (markets, schools, etc.), the insurgents have chosen to kill themselves in the hopes of at least taking a couple of Iraqi soldiers with them - not exactly a winning strategy for the insurgents, as they depend on the spectacular attacks for their media efforts.

Second, as Omar at Iraq the Model reports, the populace of Baghdad is responding to the operation. Displaced families are returning to their homes, mosques are reopening or being returned to their original owners, some Sunni and Shia congregations are holding joint services - generally, the people seem hopeful about the success of the operation, and the fact that Iraqi and American troops are demonstrating that they intend to stay in the city, rather than withdrawing to secure bases outside it, has generated a huge increase in the number of anonymous tips about insurgent hideouts.

Oh, and the round up of the Mahdi Army continues, with nearly 500 arrested so far. Seems their will to fight has lessened significantly since their leader took an extended vacation...

Of course, its still too early to call this one. The major problem with counter-insurgency warfare is that it takes a long time. To quote the Army's new manual on the subject, the average time it takes to win this type of fight is 12 to 13 years. But it only takes 9 to lose it - people just give up and let the enemy win in the end.

So the hard part, really, is sustaining our will to fight. The current operation in Baghdad is a good start, and I'm sure Gen. Petreaus will build on it if it should continue to be fruitful.